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New York CNN —
Americans are going to lose access to TikTok in less than a week, unless China green-lights a sale to what Congress has deemed a non-adversary of the United States — something China is unlikely to do but might. In theory.
As we approach the January 19 deadline, several scenarios are being discussed, one of which involves transferring control of TikTok’s US operations to Elon Musk, the preferred oligarch of your eccentric uncle who supports MAGA.
See here: Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese officials are weighing a scenario in which TikTok’s Beijing-based parent company, ByteDance, would spin off the app’s US operations to Musk, an investor they already know and who has already made a mark on the social media world by gutting one of the most influential sites ever created.
To clarify: CNN was unable to independently verify the reports from Bloomberg or the Journal; TikTok dismissed the rumors, and ByteDance has stated before that the app is not available for purchase. However, a partnership could be logical, at least theoretically, for several reasons:
- Musk, and by extension President-elect Donald Trump, gets to play the hero to a whole generation of young social media users. At least until he Muskifies the platform the way he did with Twitter (more on that in a moment).
- China would be able to put TikTok’s US operations — likely not including the company’s all-important proprietary algorithm — in the hands of someone its government already has leverage over. (Roughly 40% of Tesla’s EV sales come from Chinese consumers.)
- It could be a way to pull X out of the gutter. In short, TikTok is cool; X is not. X is hemorrhaging users and advertisers while TikTok is expanding rapidly. (Analytics firm Emarketer said it expects TikTok to bring in $15.53 billion this year in the US alone, a 26% jump year over year.)
TikTok enthusiasts might want to hold off on popping the Champagne just yet.
According to Emarketer senior analyst Minda Smiley, it remains uncertain if Musk can negotiate an agreement that meets the needs of all parties involved before Congress' deadline, or if the sale would successfully navigate the regulatory challenges.
Even if an agreement were reached, it’s probable that a Musk-inspired TikTok would differ significantly from the platform we are familiar with today.
"Under Musk's leadership, TikTok would probably undergo significant changes — just take a glance at the radical shift of Twitter into X since he took charge," Smiley stated. "Moreover, since TikTok's algorithm is probably not included in any potential sale, the app is expected to evolve considerably no matter who acquires it, if a transaction occurs."
TikTok creators, many of whom have built their livelihood on the app, desperately want to keep the lights on. But so far, there isn’t a widely agreed upon alternative.
Many are migrating to other Chinese-owned apps Lemon8 (which is also owned by ByteDance) and RedNote, an Instagram-like app that’s popular in China.
Some users are shifting to Instagram Reels, which is Meta's answer to TikTok that was introduced in 2020; however, a significant number of TikTok enthusiasts consider this alternative to be a non-starter.
“I’d rather move to China than Instagram Reels” is a common sentiment on the platform lately.
Although Reels and TikTok may appear to be alike, the overall user experience and the atmosphere of their communities are strikingly dissimilar.
TikTok users often dismiss Reels, viewing it as a place where recycled videos, which have already circulated on TikTok, end up.
The comments section is a distinctive aspect of TikTok culture — users often enjoy sharing humorous or thought-provoking remarks, which frequently gain momentum and become popular in their own right. In contrast, creators on TikTok express that their interactions with comments on Reels can be quite dull at times, and at other times, downright harsh.
TikTok users generally appreciate humor and creativity, often pushing back against trolls. However, this dynamic might shift if TikTok were to be managed by Musk and integrated with X, a platform that has attracted individuals who believe they possess greater intelligence and wit than they actually do.
Meanwhile, Tesla investors may not be thrilled about Musk absorbing yet another social media platform after he shelled out $44 billion on X more than two years ago. Musk is a busy guy — the father of at least 11 children, the CEO or owner of at least six companies, a constant presence at President-elect Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago transition office and the co-head of a toothless advisory on government efficiency. But the job that’s made him the world’s wealthiest person is running Tesla, the only publicly traded company Musk owns.
I inquired with Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities and a long-time supporter of Tesla, about whether the potential TikTok venture might unsettle investors who have previously voiced worries regarding the CEO's outside engagements.
Ives pointed out that despite the obvious risks involved, purchasing TikTok could potentially double the value of X, which has plummeted by approximately 80% since Musk made the company private.
Ives remarked that, despite the potential dangers, “the friendship between Musk and Trump represents a significant victory for Musk… as influential figures in technology compete for dominance.”
He remarked, "This is a soap opera that is bound to have numerous unexpected developments, especially with January 19th approaching rapidly."